OPEC Oil Output Jumps by 920,000 Barrels per Day as Saudi Leads Recovery
The IEA forecasts global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, while global oil inventories stood 509 million barrels below end-February levels by the end of September.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased crude oil production by approximately 920,000 barrels per day in September, bringing total output to 25.097 million barrels per day, according to its October Monthly Oil Market Report released on October 13.
Saudi Arabia recorded the largest increase among OPEC members covered by the production estimates, adding 744,000 barrels per day to reach approximately 8.001 million barrels per day. Iraq increased production by 386,000 barrels per day to 3.92 million, while the United Arab Emirates added 86,000 barrels per day to reach 3.917 million barrels per day.
The increases were partly offset by lower production elsewhere. Kuwait reduced output by 140,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.8 million, while Iran’s production fell by 99,000 barrels per day to around 2 million barrels per day.
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The production rebound came amid continued disruptions to oil shipments linked to the conflict involving Iran and security risks affecting key Middle Eastern shipping routes. Although higher production indicates a recovery in supply, the volume of oil produced does not necessarily translate into an equivalent increase in exports or deliveries to international buyers.
OPEC’s report also revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 downward to approximately 180,000 barrels per day, compared with its previous estimate of around 380,000 barrels per day. The organisation expects demand growth to strengthen in 2027 as markets seek to replenish inventories depleted by supply disruptions.
The September figures, therefore, show a substantial recovery in OPEC crude production, led by Saudi Arabia, even as uncertainty surrounding oil transportation and global demand continues to shape market conditions.
Despite the September rebound, OPEC+ countries participating in the production agreement remained 5.45 million barrels per day below their combined production target. Their output rose to 30.753 million barrels per day from 29.797 million in August, narrowing the shortfall but leaving a substantial gap between planned and actual production.
Saudi Arabia alone produced 2.477 million barrels per day below its September target, while Iraq fell 511,000 barrels per day short. The figures show that the monthly production increase did not eliminate the group’s wider output deficit.
For investors, the International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 2.6 million barrels per day on average in 2026. Meanwhile, global observed oil inventories stood 509 million barrels below their end-February level by the end of September. The combination of weaker demand and depleted inventories creates competing pressures on oil prices.
Investors should monitor export volumes, inventory changes, and revisions to demand forecasts to assess how supply conditions are evolving. For oil producers, higher output alone does not guarantee higher revenue, as earnings also depend on realized prices and the volume of crude successfully delivered to buyers.
